{"id":5204,"date":"2024-01-03T11:41:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T15:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bushwealthmanagement.com\/?p=5204"},"modified":"2024-01-03T11:41:41","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T15:41:41","slug":"market-commentary-01-03-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bushwealthmanagement.com\/market-commentary-01-03-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Commentary 01\/03\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023 was a big year for U.S. stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor\u2019s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 came to a close, many on Wall Street predicted further pain in the new year. Economists forecasted a 70 percent chance of recession in 2023, and consumer and investor confidence were both low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pessimism persisted well into 2023. Some of the negativity may have been due to loss aversion. Behavioral economics has found that the pain of losing is far more powerful than the pleasure of winning. Overall, investors were less bullish than usual for much of 2023, according to the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. In addition, consumer sentiment fluctuated significantly over the year, often reflecting expectations for inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stock Markets Finished the Year Higher<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 trended higher from March through July. Early on, the rally was driven by just a few technology stocks; however, the gains became more widespread as inflation slowed, economic growth remained healthy, and the likelihood of recession receded. The rally cooled in August as investor confidence slipped when inflation data moved in the wrong direction, opening the door to additional Fed rate hikes.However,bullish sentiment improved again in October and remained above average throughout most of November and December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December, Jacob Sonenshine of Barron\u2019s<\/em> reported, \u201cThe main driver of the gains has been the decelerating pace of inflation, which has led the Federal Reserve to refrain from further interest-rate hikes over its past two meetings\u2026That would enable the economy to continue growing and keep companies\u2019 sales and profits on the rise. Lower rates also make future profits and dividends more valuable, lifting valuations for all sorts of companies from high-dividend payers to high-growth technology firms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the United States, major stock indices finished 2023 with double-digit returns. The S&P 500 was up 24.2 percent for the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 13.7 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 43.4 percent, reported Samantha Subin and Jesse Pound of CNBC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Brief Review of 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The year was filled with geopolitical uncertainty, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and political divisions at home that led to a debt ceiling standoff and a failure to pass funding for the 2024 budget. Here are a few key events from last year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n